August is the season of undefeated records, smiling quarterbacks and coaches promising their team has finally learned how to finish games. Before the first kickoff, here are the teams, storylines and talking points that deserve a little less blind faith.
College football is undefeated in August.
Every quarterback has matured. Every offensive line is deeper. Every defense is faster. Every coach says the culture is stronger. Every transfer is the missing piece. Every fan base believes its program is about to surprise people.
Then Week One arrives.
That is when the new quarterback sees a disguised coverage. That is when the rebuilt offensive line has to block a third-and-long blitz. That is when a coach who spent July saying “we are close” discovers his team still cannot manage the final two minutes of a one-score game.
August is hope season. Bottom of the Barrel is here to ask an annoying question.
What if the hype is nonsense?
The Poll Is Not A Participation Trophy
The preseason AP poll has Ohio State first, Oregon second and Georgia third. That is understandable. Those programs have talent, resources and enough national credibility to make their rankings feel earned before a snap.
The more interesting part begins lower in the poll.
Missouri opens at No. 25. Houston is No. 23. BYU is tied at No. 14. All three are capable teams. All three can also fall out of the rankings quickly because preseason rankings near the bottom of the poll are often built on hope, schedule projection and a voter thinking, “Well, somebody has to be No. 25.”
Missouri is a respectable SEC program. That does not mean it is safe. The Tigers will face the same conference problem every borderline-ranked SEC team faces: one tough loss becomes two, two becomes three and suddenly the team that looked like a top-25 contender in August is trying to explain why it is 4-4 in late October.
Houston is being asked to carry more national belief than it has earned recently. The Cougars may be better. They may have the offense and energy to make noise in the Big 12. But the league is full of teams that can turn a promising season into a 7-5 record before Halloween.
BYU is the boldest ranking. No. 14 is not “interesting sleeper” territory. That is “we think you are a serious national team” territory. The Cougars have the toughness, coaching and home-field atmosphere to make believers out of people. But the Big 12 is not interested in helping anyone confirm preseason hype.
Two close losses and BYU could go from playoff conversation to “Why were they ranked that high?” in about 14 days.
The New-Coach Honeymoon Is About To End
New coaches are always popular in August because none of their decisions have gone wrong yet.
Lane Kiffin at LSU looks perfect on paper. He has SEC experience, an offensive system built for modern football and access to one of the country’s best recruiting states. But LSU is not Ole Miss. LSU has louder expectations, louder boosters and a fan base that expects championships before the first gumbo pot cools.
Kiffin will win games. The question is whether he can manage the entire machine. The Tigers are not hiring him to be interesting. They are hiring him to beat Georgia, Alabama and Texas when it matters.
Bill Belichick at North Carolina is the most entertaining unknown in the sport. He is the greatest NFL coach ever. He is also entering a world where he must recruit teenagers, manage NIL, navigate portal tampering conversations and win over people who do not care about his Super Bowls.
Belichick will have to prove that organization travels. He will have to prove that his system can work when the roster changes constantly. He will have to prove that North Carolina can become more than a fascinating September story.
A loss to TCU in Dublin will not end the experiment. But it will give the internet enough material to act like it did.
Auburn’s Alex Golesh may have the most dangerous first-year assignment. Auburn wants a modern offense, a recruiting surge and a return to relevance. It also wants all of that yesterday. The Tigers have enough talent to surprise people. They also have enough recent chaos to make any early mistake feel like another warning sign.
The coach who wins August is the one who gives fans a new slogan. The coach who wins November is the one who gives them fewer reasons to panic.
The Bottom Of The Barrel Preseason Awards
The “We Have A Great Quarterback Room” Award goes to every program that still has not named a starter. Competition is useful. A quarterback room can be talented and still be a problem. Alabama, Tennessee, Florida and Clemson all have important questions at the sport’s most important position.
The “Please Stop Calling It A Rebuild” Award goes to programs that have spent three years explaining why progress will happen next year. At some point, a rebuild becomes a renovation with no opening date.
The “This Team Could Be Dangerous” Award goes to every fringe top-25 program in America. Yes, they could be dangerous. So could every team with enough athletes, a decent quarterback and a friendly September schedule. The question is whether they can win when the game gets uncomfortable.
The “Somebody Has To Be A Playoff Sleeper” Award goes to the team that will be projected into the playoff simply because analysts want a fresh name. It might be SMU. It might be Texas Tech. It might be Boise State. It might be a team that loses in Week Two and spends the rest of the year being described as “better than its record.”
The “Do Not Let One Scrimmage Throw Ruin Your Life” Award goes to every fan base sharing grainy practice video of a backup quarterback completing a 15-yard out route with no pass rush.
Football is almost here, and that means the nonsense is almost over.
In two weeks, somebody will lose a game it should have won. Somebody will throw three interceptions. Somebody will call a timeout they do not have. Somebody will discover the portal did not fix the offensive line.
Bottom of the Barrel will be waiting.
