Arkansas State has the right pieces to punish another sloppy Memphis performance.
Memphis should beat Arkansas State. The Tigers are at home. They are favored by about 10 points. Marcus Stokes already survived a difficult road opener. Arkansas State lost its three-year starting quarterback to the transfer portal. This is why Saturday can get dangerous.
Memphis Could Blow Its Season Before AAC Play Even Starts
A favored team does not get trapped because it lacks talent. It gets trapped when it thinks talent will handle the details. Memphis has enough talent to beat Arkansas State. The Tigers also showed enough issues at UNLV to make this game worth taking seriously.
UNLV outgained Memphis 460-418. The Rebels ran 79 offensive plays while the Tigers ran 60. They controlled the ball for 35:09. Memphis went 3-for-11 on third down and lost a fumble. The Tigers still won 27-21. That does not mean the problems disappeared.
Arkansas State Has a Plan
The Red Wolves lost Jaylen Raynor, who threw for 8,694 yards and 52 touchdowns during three seasons before transferring to Iowa State. That loss changes Arkansas State. It does not make Arkansas State harmless.
Butch Jones still has running back Kenyon Clay, receiver Chauncy Cobb, Devin Spencer in the backfield and four returning offensive-line starters. Cobb caught 73 passes last season. He is the player Memphis cannot allow to create space. One missed tackle can become a long gain. One bad kick can flip the field. Arkansas State does not need its new quarterback to become Raynor on Saturday.
The Red Wolves can run the ball. They can throw quick passes. Arkansas State becomes even more dangerous if they can get Cobb the ball in space. They can use their veteran offensive line to keep their quarterback out of third-and-long. That is the entire upset blueprint. Keep the game close. Own possession. Avoid turnovers. Wait for Memphis to make mistakes. UNLV nearly beat the Tigers with that formula.
Memphis Must Win First Down
Memphis cannot play another game where the opponent runs nearly 20 more plays. The Tigers’ defense finished strong at UNLV. Six sacks and 11 tackles for loss helped seal the win. One late fourth-down sack ended UNLV’s best chance to take the lead. Those plays mattered. Still, Memphis cannot wait until the fourth quarter to create havoc.
Arkansas State will want Clay and Spencer running downhill. If the Red Wolves are regularly gaining four or five yards on first down, everything becomes easier. The quarterback faces manageable throws. Cobb sees easier coverage. Play action becomes more dangerous. Memphis has to force long-yardage situations early.
A first-down stop changes the entire game. It allows the Tigers to pressure the quarterback. It gives the secondary a chance to play aggressively. It takes away the run-pass balance Arkansas State needs to survive. The Tigers made UNLV work late. They must make Arkansas State work from the first drive.
Stokes Cannot Play From Behind Again
Marcus Stokes gave Memphis reason to believe. He threw for 223 yards and two touchdowns against UNLV. He added 45 rushing yards. He did not throw an interception. The quarterback position looks more stable than it did before kickoff. Now the offense needs to help him.
Memphis gained 418 yards at UNLV and averaged 7.0 yards per play. Those are winning numbers. The Tigers still went 3-for-11 on third down because they did not sustain enough drives. Kevin Decker’s offense needs a more mature approach Saturday. Big plays are welcome. They cannot be the emergency plan.
Memphis should use Jaylin Carter early. It should let Stokes make simple reads. It should take the easy throws. It should convert third-and-short. Most importantly, it should force Arkansas State to chase points.
A two-score Memphis lead would change the entire game. The Red Wolves would need their inexperienced quarterback to take chances. Their offensive line would have fewer chances to dictate the pace. Cobb would see more coverage attention. Memphis could turn loose its pass rush. That is how the Tigers avoid a four-quarter headache.
The Rivalry Has Teeth
Memphis leads the all-time series 34-23-5 and has won five straight against Arkansas State. That history should create confidence. It should not create comfort. Arkansas State erased a 25-point halftime deficit to beat Memphis in 2007. The Red Wolves also beat the Tigers 47-3 in 2011 and won again in 2012. The Paint Bucket Bowl has never cared much about expectations.
Memphis has bigger goals than Arkansas State. The Tigers want an American Athletic Conference title and a national Group of Six résumé. That is why this game matters. A clean win would show growth. Another sloppy escape would raise questions. A loss would damage Memphis before conference play even arrives.
The Bottom Line
Arkansas State is dangerous because it knows exactly how to keep the game close. The Red Wolves have a veteran line, a capable backfield and a legitimate weapon in Cobb. They do not need their new quarterback to be a star. They need him to avoid mistakes while Memphis creates them.
The Tigers have the better players. Saturday will show whether they have the better discipline. Memphis escaped UNLV because it made the biggest plays late. Against Arkansas State, it needs to make enough smart plays early that no escape is necessary.
