CFP Playoff Proposes More Takeover
With the college football season swiftly approaching, “Talking Season” is already underway. Generally, when this phrase is used, it refers to the different preseason media scrums that take place across the country for conferences. Recently, we saw Greg Sankey, SEC Commissioner, speak transparently in favor of another model for the seeding of the CFP.
What is this model? How does it differ from the current? Who wants the change? Are there additional models being proposed? We analyze these questions, and more, in a detailed piece on a CFP Takeover.
What Is The Current Model?
With the expansion from four teams to twelve, we have already seen a transition and change in the Playoffs. With the current structure, the model operates under a 5+7 pattern. In this, fans see five automatic bids awarded to the highest-ranked conference champions, as determined by the CFP Selection Committee. Next, we see the seven at-large bids are awarded to the highest-ranked teams, regardless of conference affiliation.
The top four champions receive a first-round bye. The fifth, from a “Group of Five” program, is awarded a first-round game on the campus of one of the remaining eight teams. These teams all compete at the campus of the higher-ranked five through eight seeds. You may ask, “Where is the advantage to that conference champion?” and we asked as well. We will answer this soon.
Who Wants The Change?
We start with the “Who” in the analysis of what changes are being proposed because this is vital. Before we get there, we are assuming the revenue sharing case will be passed, which is why the people we are about to detail are pushing this issue so forcefully.
To be blunt, this is all coming from the desks of the President of the Universities. Yes, we are hearing from Sankey and other commissioners across the country on this topic, but these men and women are only doing as they are told.
We also need to point out that the newest proposed models are all predicated on the expansion to a 16-team structure. The 5+11 model will guarantee that five automatic bids are reserved for those the CFP Selection Committee has deemed the highest-ranked conference champions. This ensures the inclusion of champions from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and the ACC in the field. In addition, this also guarantees the highest-ranked “G5” champion from the American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, or C-USA to be included.
We again see an immediate swaying to the power conferences as the fifth champion is slotted with the remaining teams and plays a first-round game. These spots will be filled by the next-highest ranked teams in the final CFP rankings, regardless of conference affiliation. This, again, is modeled to see more programs from the SEC and Big Ten, which often have multiple teams that would qualify in the expanded field.
Why The Change?
As we pointed out, this is coming from the President of the schools, the same who have been against the “Legit” paying off athletes for ages until the 2021 season. So, it should not come as a shock that these people of power want more inclusion in the money cow that is the CFP Playoff. With the essential disbandment of the Pac-12, the need to change was imminent. The SEC and Big Ten specifically jumped to adjust to the current model for the 2024 season.
With the proposed model, under an expanded field, the power conferences would dominate the rankings, and they know this. More teams mean more access. This also means more opportunities for their conferences to win the CFP National Championship, which creates even more exposure.
The teams from these conferences have rebuilt their rosters through the transfer portal, many times from the “G5” programs, and more inclusion means more advantage in recruiting. Many may say, “This is not their fault; they are so good,” and this brings another topic, of context, to light.
The Strong Get Stronger
We mention the rankings because this is where we consistently see obvious bias. These rankings are based on what conference you are in and not a true analysis and breakdown of your program through the offseason and what transpired previously. With this, we see the SEC claim that any win in their conference, as their motto states, “Just Means More” than any other conference. Under this strategy, the rankings through ESPN mainly seem to mimic this week by week. With Alabama being left out of the 2024 CFP and an Ohio State and Notre Dame National Championship Game, the conference is shouting from the hilltops with its chest puffed out.
We know Sankey will get what he wants, as he seemingly always does, but the relationship with the Big Ten is vital for the “Takeover” we all see on the horizon. Along with B10 Commissioner, Tony Petitti, Sankey looks to control the narrative through television and exposure in the CFP. With Petiti in better relationships than his predecessor, Kevin Warren, and a recent CFP National Championship, the Big Ten holds as many cards in the deck as Sankey, and he is aware.
We have only mentioned two of the “Power Conferences,” as you may have noticed. The ACC and Big 12 are on the verge of another expansion and chasing their tails to keep up. As long as the money is right, this duo will remain a part of the process but never primary pieces within.
What About The Other Guys?
In all honesty, there is nothing that changes for these programs from the “G5” level. We say that in all seriousness, as there is still only one available position. Which means the pressure and goal remain the same for inclusion and an unblemished season.
We asked the question above when speaking of the fifth champion, “Where is the advantage to that conference champion?” and we now answer this for you. There is an advantage to be “The” team to represent all of the non-power conference programs within the field. This is where the advantage stops for these teams.
To make the field, the team will not only need to not lose a game, which is not easy at any level, but also need to schedule a marquee matchup, and win. Many of these programs, such as Boise State and Memphis, have put a focus on playing teams from the upper-tier conferences with success as of late.
Are There More Models?
As wild as this is to think about, this isn’t the only model being tossed around. We spoke about the Presidents of these programs being at the forefront of this change. Another model is the “4-4-2-2-1-3” which would guarantee four automatic bids to the SEC and Big Ten, two bids for the ACC and Big 12, one to the “Group of 5” champion, and three at-large selections.
In this, we would see one of the at-large bids designated for Notre Dame should they be selected by meeting the requirements. This model would all but abolish the teams not included in the power conferences. This model, and the one being proposed currently, is just setting the motion for the SEC, Big Ten, and others to separate from the NCAA and create their championship. As we have discussed on multiple podcast episodes, we will see further division in the future with an FCS model for the “Power” and “G5” conferences, and one reason repeatedly comes back to the forefront.
In closing, we are seeing the greed from the presidents of universities in plain sight, and there is not much that can be done. These men and women have hoarded money from the athletes competing on their campuses for ages.
What makes us think that when millions are at stake, for further inclusion in the CFP? We see now that they will do whatever is necessary to slowly complete the “CFP Takeover,” and no one is safe.
